Lord’s Day Over

The New Brunswick provincial election yesterday has led to showing the door to Progressive Conservative Premier Bernard Lord, but by no means was he creamed. With less than half a percentage point’s difference in the popular vote in favour of the PCs, Shawn Graham’s Liberals have formed a majority goverment: 29 Libs, 26 PCs, 0 NDP. The NDP’s showing under leader Allison Brewer was a disgrace: from a hair under 10% of the popular vote and 1 seat in 2003 to a hair above 5% this year and no seats.

Of course, I took an hour tonight and crunched the number in my trusty MPP spreadsheet. One way of looking at the data with MPP lens would have given New Brunswickers a PC minority: 27 PCs, 27 Libs and 2 NDP. It would have been a PC government due to their incumbent status, unless the Libs and NDP had agreed to a coalition and the Lieutenant-Governor called on them to form the government.

I’m still looking forward to the day when I have leisure time to create that website with tons of elections results, that would represent the data in different scenarios. But that won’t be for a while given the way things are going for me work-wise.

{2} Thoughts on “Lord’s Day Over

  1. You could of course also make the case that with PR more people might have been willing to vote for the NDP (or the Greens, or some other party) because they wouldn’t have been feeling that their vote was wasted. Still, in this election, the NDP’s campaign was so atrocious that it is hard to imagine that even PR would have given them much of a bump. That party needs to go back to the drawing board and come up with some new strategy and organizational plans.

  2. You’re absolutely right, Matthew. Notice my post this morning in which I recrunched the numbers. The NDP would have been shut out, and as it should (with its unilingual leader and all). But to the credit of PR, the party with the most votes, even though only a few, would have been called to form the government. And as you say, under PR, some might vote for parties other than the traditional ones, which in N.B. are the Libs and PCs generally. These number crunches I do merely look at the results under FPTP; voters would likely behave differently under a PR system.

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