aMMusing

I haven’t even mentioned for the benefit of those of you reading aMMusing from the United States that a federal election has been called here two weeks ago. Indeed, unless you regularly check Canadian media outlets or websites, chances are you weren’t aware that we’re in the midst of an election campaign. Compared to those in the U.S., our election campaigns are quick — a mere five weeks from the time the writ is dropped to election day, which on a variable date called by the Prime Minister (federally) or a premier (provincially).

Six months ago, when Paul Martin took over from Jean Chrétien, the outcome of a federal election seemed certain: We were heading for the fourth consecutive Liberal majority in Ottawa (where “liberal” in this case really means centrist, leaning left on social policy and right on fiscal policy). At the time it seemed unlikely that the newly reconstituted Conservative Party, resulting from the merger of the former Canadian Alliance and Progressive Conservative parties, would build enough momentum to upset the Liberals’ nearly 11-year hold on power. However, in the months between Martin’s long-awaited ascension to the PMO and now, the so-called “adscam” or “sponsorship” scandal has resurfaced to dog the Liberals. Personally, while I’m not happy about money being spent without anything to show in return, I’m not terribly upset over what I consider old news. I think the intent — raising the federal government’s profile following the nearly successful separation referundum in Québec in 1995 — was laudable; the execution, however, left a lot to be desired. (Now there’s an understatement!) Frankly, despite the Liberals’ serious other missteps since 1993, the fact remains that Canada is in much better shape on all fronts than it was in 1993, after 9 years of Progressive Conservative rule under Brian Mulroney. Much better!

At any rate, the Bloc Québécois, which seemed heading towards obsolescence last year, has gained the most from the adscam scandal as it now seem poised to take most of the seats in Québec because of how this scandal depicts the Québécois as a bunch of scoundrels. In Ontario, where the federal Liberals currently hold most of the ridings, the new provincial Liberal government’s tabling of a budget a few days before the election call, which amounts to a bunch of broken promises, has seriously compromised the federal Liberals’ comfortable lead in that province. And, when the election was called, the New Democrats under Jack Layton, standing at 18% in the polls, seemed headed towards making significant gains. However, the spectre of a minority government — either Liberal or Conservative at this point, since the two are in a dead heat — has been bringing some red conservative and soft NDPers to think about strategic voting in order to avoid a Conservative government lead by Stephen Harper. Where I live in a riding that has been NDP since 1997, I’m not thinking of voting in this manner …not that I ever would.

The thought of a Conservative government is scary to me. This new party, while theoretically the result of a merger, is in fact a takeover of the former, more centrist Progressive Conservatives by the former, more reactiionary Canadian Alliance, which in U.S. parlance was a kind of “Republican Light” party — “Light” only because there are some sacred cows in Canada that not even a right-of-centre party here would dare attack. But because the new Conservatives are so new, they don’t even have a firm, formal platform; that raises the notion that they have a hidden agenda, the details of which I don’t think Canadians want to learn only once the party has ascended to power. Harper has tried hard, obviously with some success, to portray the Conservatives as a moderate mainline party, but that attempt has been repeatedly undermined. The latest hint of just how socially destructive the Conservatives are came this weekend, when Ottawa Conservative MP Cheryl Gallant had this to say about Canada’s hate laws — <sarcasm>because, as we all know, homosexuality is just one short step on a slippery slope towards condoning pedophilia</sarcasm>.

Meanwhile, one can’t help but wonder what kind of alliances might be formed if the election yields a minority. Ideally I would want to see the NDP win enough seats to allow the Liberals to forge a majority-like alliance, as was last the case in 1972-74 under Trudeau. But some polls seem to indicate that the sum of Liberal and NDP seats might not add to the magic number of 155, which would represent a bare majority in the House of Commons. The Bloc Québécois, which was the Official Opposition from 1993 to 1997, is a wildcard in this equation. It is unlikely to ever align itself with the Liberals; however, even though it was formed by a break in the Progressive Conservative party in the late-1980s/early 1990s, its policy stances over the years have been such that it likely wouldn’t support today’s hard-edge Conservatives. So if on June 28th we end up with a minority government with no alliance, we’re likely to be back at the polls in less than a year.

It’s difficult to say if some form of proportional representation, which the NDP strongly supports, would be helpful in a tight race like this one is turning out to be. But I suspect it might. Indeed, if the NDP were to get 15% of the vote and the Green Party the 5%-6% it’s hoping to get, there would be more elected MPs from those parties to align themselves with the truly centrist Liberals, thus forming a coalition majority. Canadians, I believe, consider “good government” the result of a hybrid of policies whose cornerstone is not to achieve gains for some at the expense of others. Therefore, in giving Canadian voters the feeling that a Liberal or NDP vote in Alberta is not a wasted vote, a form of proportional representation might restore confidence in the fairness of the electoral system and contribute to the forming of governments that more closely reflect the will of the citizenry.